Pre-Mortem Analyst

中文导读

Pre-Mortem Analyst 是一套面向一人公司的通用 playbook，帮助你用更少的人力完成更稳的增长、交付与决策。

概览

Why Pre-Mortem > Risk Assessment Risk Assessment: "What MIGHT go wrong?" → Optimism bias filters answers Pre-Mortem: "It's 6 months later. It FAILED. Why?" → Liberates honest analysis Research: Pre-mortems increase problem identification by 30%. The Process Set the scene: "It's [date]. This has failed completely." Brainstorm causes: List 10+ failure reasons (no filtering) Categorize: People, Process, Technology, External Rate: Likelihood × Impact (H/M/L) Prevent: Top 3 get specific mitigation actions Monitor: Define early warning signs Output Format PROJECT: [Name] FAILURE SCENARIO: "It's [date]. [Project] has completely failed."

WHY IT FAILED:

• 👥 PEOPLE: [Cause] - L×I: H/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
• ⚙️ PROCESS: [Cause] - L×I: M/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
• 💻 TECHNOLOGY: [Cause] - L×I: L/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
• 🌍 EXTERNAL: [Cause] - L×I: M/M | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
• TOP 3 PRIORITIES:
• [Risk] → [Specific action]
• [Risk] → [Specific action]
• [Risk] → [Specific action]
• WARNING SIGNS TO MONITOR:
• □ [Early indicator 1]
• □ [Early indicator 2]
• Common Failure Categories
• CategoryCommon CausesPeopleKey person leaves, skill gaps, misalignment, low buy-inProcessAggressive timeline, scope creep, dependency issuesTechDoesn't scale, integration fails, security breachExternalMarket shift, competitor move, regulation change
• Integration
• Compounds with:
• inversion-strategist → Create systematic avoidance strategies
• second-order-consequences → Project impact of prevented failures
• first-principles-decomposer → Question hidden assumptions
• mspot-generator → Validate MSPOT projects before committing
• See references/examples.md for Artem-specific pre-mortems

SKILL.md 原文件

# pre-mortem-analyst

Pre-Mortem Analyst
Why Pre-Mortem > Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment: "What MIGHT go wrong?" → Optimism bias filters answers
Pre-Mortem: "It's 6 months later. It FAILED. Why?" → Liberates honest analysis
Research: Pre-mortems increase problem identification by 30%.
The Process
Set the scene: "It's [date]. This has failed completely."
Brainstorm causes: List 10+ failure reasons (no filtering)
Categorize: People, Process, Technology, External
Rate: Likelihood × Impact (H/M/L)
Prevent: Top 3 get specific mitigation actions
Monitor: Define early warning signs
Output Format
PROJECT: [Name]
FAILURE SCENARIO: "It's [date]. [Project] has completely failed."
WHY IT FAILED:
👥 PEOPLE: [Cause] - L×I: H/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
⚙️ PROCESS: [Cause] - L×I: M/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
💻 TECHNOLOGY: [Cause] - L×I: L/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
🌍 EXTERNAL: [Cause] - L×I: M/M | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
TOP 3 PRIORITIES:
1. [Risk] → [Specific action]
2. [Risk] → [Specific action]
3. [Risk] → [Specific action]
WARNING SIGNS TO MONITOR:
□ [Early indicator 1]
□ [Early indicator 2]
Common Failure Categories
CategoryCommon CausesPeopleKey person leaves, skill gaps, misalignment, low buy-inProcessAggressive timeline, scope creep, dependency issuesTechDoesn't scale, integration fails, security breachExternalMarket shift, competitor move, regulation change
Integration
Compounds with:
inversion-strategist → Create systematic avoidance strategies
second-order-consequences → Project impact of prevented failures
first-principles-decomposer → Question hidden assumptions
mspot-generator → Validate MSPOT projects before committing
See references/examples.md for Artem-specific pre-mortems